Federal Tax Projection 2026–2060

Scott & Courtney · Married Filing Jointly · Brackets & standard deduction inflation-adjusted at 2.4%/yr

Note: Tax projections assume TCJA renewal (current law). If TCJA expires post-2025, MFJ standard deduction drops ~$5K and lower bracket thresholds compress — increasing effective tax rate by ~$3,000–5,000/yr.

Inputs
Retirement (2028)
Medicare (2051)
Social Security starts
Year-by-Year Federal Tax Projection
Year Age Ord Income LTCG Std Ded Taxable Ord Fed Tax Eff Rate LTCG Tax Total Tax MAGI ACA Cliff Headroom IRMAA Sur.
Note: Colorado state income tax (~4.40% flat rate) is not included. Estimated CO state tax: add ~4.40% × (federal taxable income) ≈ $2,000–3,500/yr for typical retirement income of $50–80K taxable.
⚠ IRMAA Spike Alert: When SS income begins in 2053+ (Courtney) and 2056+ (Scott), MAGI will jump ~$35–50K/yr. The 2-year IRMAA lookback means 2055–2058 Medicare Part B/D surcharges will reflect this higher income. Plan Roth conversions in 2051–2054 carefully to minimize IRMAA tier exposure.
Roth Conversion Capacity (2028–2052)

Max additional conversion staying within 12% bracket & ACA cliff (base income excludes Roth conversion)

Year 12% Ceiling Base Ord Inc Max Conv @12% ACA Headroom Binding Limit Tax @12%
0% LTCG Harvest Capacity (2028–2052)

Room to realize long-term gains at 0% federal rate (based on base ordinary income, no Roth conversion)

Year 0% LTCG Threshold Ord Taxable (no conv) Harvest Capacity Effective Rate on Harvest
Note: 3.8% Net Investment Income Tax (NIIT) applies if MAGI exceeds $250,000 MFJ. This household is unlikely to trigger NIIT under normal conditions, but a large Roth conversion or inheritance year could push MAGI above this threshold.
Tax-Efficient Withdrawal Order — Lifetime Strategy

Based on Kitces/Pfau research and i-ORP principles: minimize lifetime taxes by sequencing withdrawals to avoid bracket jumps, ACA cliff, and IRMAA surcharges.

Phase Years · Ages Primary Source Key Constraint Roth Conversion Opportunity Tactical Notes
Priority Rule: Taxable first (up to 0% LTCG threshold or ACA cliff) → Traditional IRA/401k (fill remaining bracket room) → Roth last (preserve tax-free compounding). Exception: RMD years — traditional comes out first by law. Use QCDs if charitable.
Roth Conversion → RMD Impact Projector

How much will your conversions reduce your required minimum distributions at age 73 (2059)? Assumes 6.5% growth on tax-deferred accounts.